International aid to Ukraine: Are all risks being considered?

International aid to Ukraine is critically important for sustaining the economy and ensuring stability during the war. However, there are many factors that influence its provision, and some of them are often overlooked. One key factor is the country's image and the reputation of its institutions on the international stage, which is shaped by government institutions, as noted by UNN.

90-day pause

One of Ukraine's main partners is the United States of America. However, after Donald Trump was elected President of the United States, certain challenges arose. Upon taking office, the American president imposed a 90-day pause on foreign aid to other countries, including Ukraine. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky noted that military assistance from the U.S. has not been halted, despite the 90-day restrictions on humanitarian programs.

However, it is worth reminding how crucial international funding for humanitarian programs in Ukraine is, as it encompasses many vital areas during the war—ranging from the rehabilitation of injured soldiers to support for developing energy-independent infrastructure.

Considering the new U.S. administration's decision, American officials will conduct a thorough audit of the aid, focusing on the effectiveness of its use and the reputation of the recipient country.

At the same time, the expert does not rule out that American partners may have a number of questions regarding the Ukrainian authorities' fight against corruption violations, should they be uncovered during the audit.

If U.S. auditors find issues with the use of funding for humanitarian concerns, it is likely that a more extensive review of the targeted use of international aid will commence. This, in turn, could affect more significant areas of funding and the provision of macroeconomic stability in Ukraine.

NBU believes there will be no issues

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) believes that international support in 2025 will help avoid emission financing of the budget deficit. Thanks to stable inflows, the government was able to finance a significant deficit in 2024, and the NBU increased its international reserves to a record level of $43.8 billion.

According to Pyshny, the NBU also aims to compensate for the currency deficit in the private sector and mitigate potential exchange rate fluctuations. This, he stated, will ensure stability in the currency market and support the economy.

However, the NBU's forecasts do not take into account the influence of domestic political factors on international support and the country's image. In particular, scandals involving high-ranking officials, such as the case against the head of the NBU's legal department, Oleksandr Zima, may affect trust in Ukraine from international partners.

International donors, including the U.S. and the European Union, are closely monitoring the situation within the country. Corruption scandals, abuse of power by officials, and questionable personnel decisions raise concerns among partners. According to experts, this may impact the volume and conditions of funding that will be directed to Ukraine. It is clear that military assistance to Ukrainians will not be reduced, but humanitarian initiatives may suffer significantly.

“It is always necessary to take care of the image—both for the country, companies, and individuals—because the perception depends on the image, and this perception affects the volumes and directions of cooperation with such a country or the lack thereof.

Therefore, if, for example, the country's characterization is that it is a deeply corrupt country, this negatively impacts not only moral and psychological opinions but also leads to direct consequences such as the absence of serious investments in the country and a lack of significant tourist flows. In other words, there are direct negative economic consequences when the image is negative,” noted Andriy Novak.

It is also important to consider that international aid is inextricably linked to the effectiveness of reforms. Economic transparency, the fight against corruption, and the proper use of funds are key conditions for continued support.

Resolving domestic political conflicts, combating corruption, dishonest officials, and effective governance are crucial steps that will help maintain international support and ensure economic stability in 2025 and beyond.

The situation in the NBU could serve as an important marker for the international community. If scandals such as the criminal case against the chief lawyer of the National Bank go unaddressed, it could undermine trust in the entire financial system of Ukraine.

The Zima case

A criminal case was opened against Zima due to his letter to the Deposit Guarantee Fund for Individuals (FGVFL). In the document, Zima, who is both the director of the NBU's legal department and the chairman of the Administrative Council of the FGVFL, recommended on behalf of the National Bank that the Fund withdraw lawsuits filed by Concord Bank against the NBU. These lawsuits concerned the annulment of fines totaling nearly 63.5 million hryvnias and were filed before the decision to liquidate the bank.

The Deposit Guarantee Fund followed this recommendation, which, according to Yelena Sosedka, infringed on the constitutional right of the bank's shareholders to a fair trial.

Thus, Zima likely called into question the independence of the management of the Deposit Guarantee Fund, which now negatively impacts interactions with international financial institutions. It is not excluded that, for example, the IMF, due to dissatisfaction with the situation, has begun actively demanding that Ukraine develop procedures and hold an open competition for the position of the director of the FGVFL.

The Zima case has now been transferred from the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) to the Pechersk Police Department in Kyiv for investigation. Law enforcement officials informed UNN that they plan to interrogate the chief lawyer of the NBU, and after notifying him of the suspicion, investigators are likely to petition the court to suspend Zima from performing his duties as the director of the NBU's legal department. Investigators have also recognized Elena and Yulia Sosedka as victims in this criminal case, confirming that Zima's actions caused harm.

Despite the seriousness of the case, NBU head Andriy Pyshny continues to ignore the issue, while Oleksandr Zima continues to work in his position and receive million-dollar incomes.