Wednesday12 February 2025
segodnya.org.ua

Trump has tasked ending the war in Ukraine within 100 days. The Wall Street Journal explains the likelihood of this happening.

Kellogg's role is more of a preliminary step in the peace negotiations.
Трамп обещал завершить войну в Украине за 100 дней. Каковы шансы на успех? Об этом сообщает WSJ.

Donald Trump, who assumed the office of President of the United States, tasked his special representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, with ending the war between Ukraine and Russia within a hundred days. However, very few believe he will succeed, including the Russians.

This is reported by The Wall Street Journal. The article states that Kellogg's role is more of a first step in peace negotiations, which Trump intends to oversee himself.

"However, striking deals with Russian President Vladimir Putin will be much more complicated than Trump promised during his campaign when he said he would end the conflict before taking office," the journalists note.

It is assumed that Kellogg will advise Trump in the negotiations, "but it’s unclear whether the newly elected president seeks much advice." The publication cites a former Trump advisor, John Bolton, who mentioned that he once heard Trump say he liked Kellogg because he "never expresses his opinion until I ask him to."

At the same time, according to former colleagues, Kellogg's military experience may be significant for Trump as he weighs the implications of extending or withdrawing aid to Ukraine.

"Trump enjoys his company and considers him a fiercely loyal guy, but he has never had any meaningful influence on policy… He certainly won't offer anything that deviates from what Trump has decided," said a former National Security Council staffer.

Moreover, Bolton fears that during the upcoming negotiations, Trump may pressure Kyiv into making ruinous concessions to Moscow, "because, it seems to me, Putin knows how to play Trump," and Kellogg is unlikely to serve as a buffer against Putin's influence.

"He will simply do what Trump tells him. He may protest, but Trump chose Kellogg not for his independent judgment," Bolton stated.

Kellogg's former colleagues say he was appointed as the representative for Ukraine based on a peace plan he proposed, which contained strong criticism of the Biden administration. This plan called for a ceasefire and resolution through negotiations, using both carrot and stick to compel the Russians and Ukrainians to negotiate.

"As a concession to Russia, the plan recommended that NATO refrain from admitting Ukraine into the alliance and proposed some easing of sanctions in exchange for Russia signing a peace agreement. The plan also threatened to halt military aid to Kyiv if the government there did not engage in peace negotiations," the publication reminds.

However, even in Moscow, there is skepticism towards this plan, with some mocking the concept of "carrot and stick," stating that none of the points frightened or tempted the Russian side.

Political scientist and defense expert from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Seth Jones, considers Kellogg a serious thinker whose presence in Trump's orbit should lend weight to the White House's decisions regarding Ukraine. However, he notes that the Kremlin's personal attacks on Kellogg and his plan do not bode well for any agreement.

Recall that we previously reported that "Telegraph" spoke with Associate Professor at the Institute of International Relations, Political Science Candidate Nikolai Kapitenko, who commented on Trump, China's role, and the prospects of defeating Russia.