A military expert warns that a "truce" in Ukraine poses real dangers, suggesting that the threat of a third world war is a genuine concern.

In the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine, the Russians could accumulate a military potential significantly greater than what they had in February 2022, all within just a year. It is possible that the Kremlin, after assessing this strength, may wish to start the war again, but this time against Europe.

This was stated by military-political analyst Alexander Kovalenko in his Facebook post. According to him, by imposing a truce on Ukraine, Europe is bringing closer the Third World War.

He noted that thanks to this respite, the Russians could amass over the year:

• 4,500 tanks;
• 9,000 to 10,000 armored vehicles;
• 5,000 artillery units;
• about 10 million ammunition;
• 1.1 to 1.2 million soldiers.

Regarding missiles, the figures are as follows:

• X-101/555 – between 800 and 1,000;
• 3M14 Kalibr cruise missiles – between 300 and 400;
• 9M723 Iskander OTRK – between 250 and 350;
• X-47M2 Kinzhal – 50 to 70;
• 3M22 Zircon – 15 to 20.

"And here arises the question: who among world politicians can guarantee that in a year of such 'ceasefire', Vladimir Putin, seeing the potential of his army exceeding that of 2022 by several times, will not want to repeat the 'action'? Moreover, not only in Ukraine but also strike at Europe?" — wrote Kovalenko.

He also examined one scenario for a potential invasion of Europe — through the Suwalki Corridor via Lithuania into the Kaliningrad region. According to him, this is about a hundred kilometers when measured along the highways. In earlier Russian plans, this operation was allotted 48 hours, after which they would secure positions, form flanks, and create a safety zone.

However, following the onset of the invasion in Ukraine, the Russian military potential was diminished, and the possibility of a swift capture of the Baltic states was lost. Nevertheless, if Putin were to have an offensive capability that exceeds what he had in 2022 by several times, plans to capture the corridor could become relevant again.

Kovalenko points out that Poland is not prepared for a war against a numerically superior enemy, one that shows complete disregard for the lives of its soldiers, lacks proper defensive lines, and would face significant challenges in troop transfers due to the massive influx of refugees blocking key routes. At the same time, these bottlenecks will not hinder the Russians, as they are already accustomed to pushing through and shooting at anything in their path.

Moreover, the expert added that it would not be difficult for Putin to allocate a hundred thousand or so personnel for the capture of the Baltic states, and an established mobilization system could compensate for personnel losses in the initial months.

"By imposing a 'ceasefire' on Ukraine, Europe is merely bringing the war closer to its own territory — bringing the Third World War nearer. EU countries, especially those bordering Russia, are not safe," he wrote, emphasizing that peace with a half-defeated enemy will only lead to an even greater war.

As previously reported, German experts state that it will take the Russians only 1-3 years to pose a serious threat to NATO.