"Another Ukrainian economy has emerged abroad": Why fewer Ukrainians wish to return and what can be done about it.

At the beginning of the large-scale invasion, many Ukrainians left for abroad into the unknown. Later, thoughts emerged: "We'll wait it out and then come back." But three years have passed, and many are no longer sure if they even want to return. Moreover, the process of Ukrainians leaving for abroad has not ceased to this day.

Seven million – that’s the number of our fellow citizens in refugee status currently trying to build new lives in various corners of the world.

How will Ukraine cope with the emigration of its population when wages in neighboring countries are several times higher? Which countries will not want to let go of Ukrainian migrants? Will the world provide a signal for return, or will it instead trigger a new wave of emigration?

About this and much more, "Telegraph" asked Doctor of Economic Sciences, a specialist in migration policy and financial programs for migrants and the diaspora, Andrei Haidutsky.

"The desire to leave is not the same as actual departure"

— Let’s start with the fact that the longer Ukrainians live abroad, the harder it is to bring them back. Many have already "settled down"; they found jobs, housing, and their children are studying in local schools. There’s a feeling that we are a bit late in bringing them back. In your opinion, is this true, or is it still too early to say that Ukraine has lost these people forever?

— In diplomacy, there’s a saying: "Never say never." Therefore, I am confident that we maintain a connection with every Ukrainian. We can invite them to return, develop programs for their reintegration. There will come a time when each of them will be interested in coming back to Ukraine. Of course, there’s currently a period when people return but do not stay.

Unfortunately, most are leaving for abroad again, and there are four fundamental reasons for this: education, employment, building savings and financial reserves, as well as new connections and contacts.

As soon as a person achieves one or all of these goals, their desire to return home significantly increases. This phenomenon is called the human migration cycle, which usually lasts about 15 years.

The faster a person achieves their goals abroad, the quicker they will be ready to return.

— Speaking of numbers, how many of the 7 million Ukrainian refugees currently abroad can realistically return?

— These people have different goals. If we are talking about schoolchildren, depending on their age, they left for education for a period of three to ten years. Gaining work experience abroad can last from two to fifteen years, influenced by goals such as building financial savings, the desire to start a business at home, etc.

Overall, I believe that after the end of martial law, about two million people will return to Ukraine. These will mostly be older Ukrainians who find it difficult to integrate abroad, as well as some youth. At the same time, a certain portion of citizens will leave Ukraine.

A recent study showed that around 21% of the population would like to leave for abroad. But this kind of statistic is typical for other countries in Europe and around the world – many want to try living outside their own state. In Italy, for instance, 17% of the population would like to leave for abroad. Therefore, this should be approached calmly.

The desire to leave and the actual departure are different things. Thus, I believe that after the end of martial law, the balance of the population and labor force will remain at the current level: some people will return, while others will leave.

— What should be the "ideal package of offers" for a Ukrainian who has left? Is it safety, affordable housing, business programs?

— Let me tell you about the foreign experience of how this works in countries where the government has been dealing with its citizens going abroad for decades. These are countries like the Philippines, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia.

In these countries, there is high birth rate and significant excess labor force. People often leave for work abroad. But, like in Ukraine, these countries periodically experience crises, which further accelerates labor emigration.

In Ukraine, it is war. In the Philippines, there are frequent earthquakes and tsunamis due to the country’s island location. In India and Pakistan, natural disasters related to flooding, river shifts, etc., occur.

Therefore, millions of people there are forced to relocate annually to avoid unemployment.

What does the state do when it sees that these people cannot find work at home for months? It offers them an ecosystem for preparing for work abroad and assists in legal employment abroad. This ecosystem includes, first, qualification enhancement courses for the specialty with which the person plans to work abroad. Second, basic language courses for the country the person plans to go to. Third, an orientation course on the cultural features of the country they are going to and the grounds for protecting migrants' rights in that country. Fourth, a financial literacy course and training on how to save money at home (since the main goal of the trip is to earn money).

Simultaneously, the governments of these countries ensure that migration is legal, protecting the departing migrants. This means securing an official contract with an employer abroad, providing worker insurance, and ensuring the availability of a bank account in the home country.

Once the person starts working abroad, they maintain contact and are encouraged to transfer their savings back home. They are motivated to invest money not under the mattress in a foreign country but to direct it to bank accounts, insurance programs, and pension savings in their home country.

This is the ideal program for supporting migrants that I have described.

The income gap between Ukraine and the countries to which Ukrainians go is too vast. For example: between Ukraine and Poland – three times, between Ukraine and Germany – seven times, between Ukraine and the UK – eight times, and from the USA – about ten times.

It is impossible to retain people, as even raising salaries to at least half of that level would lead to the closure of most businesses in Ukraine. Therefore, it is necessary to implement strategies for reasonable labor migration, as other countries do.

"Over 90% of refugees are from Western and Central Ukraine"

— You know, one of the advantages of Ukraine that I would like to highlight is that in recent years we have really achieved a lot in implementing digital technologies. Many things can be done online. And it looks much simpler than in European countries, which our citizens encountered when they left. In your opinion, can we use these achievements as a competitive advantage in the fight to bring Ukrainians back and perhaps encourage the youth to stay in Ukraine?

— Absolutely, we should do this. Today, it is much easier than 10-20 years ago to convey information to various segments of the population abroad through targeted advertising. This allows us to effectively inform Ukrainians about the advantages Ukraine could offer: job opportunities, favorable conditions for saving money, insurance programs, leisure opportunities, etc.

However, the key advantage of digital technologies is the significant reduction in the cost of transferring money. After all, migration is about money.

92% of all migrants in the world are current or future labor migrants, and their key goals are related to earning money. Social migrants, i.e., refugees who continue to not work abroad, make up only 7-8%.

If we talk about Ukrainians abroad, there are almost no classic refugees among them. If we look at the structure of Ukrainian migrants in Poland by the end of 2023, over 80% of them are people not from frontline territories, but from Western and Central Ukraine. They left from safe regions, and their main migration motives are education, work, building savings, and forming contacts and connections.

Therefore, it is important to discuss migration specifically in economic terms. As soon as migration begins to be viewed as a financial process, it attracts interest from banks, insurance companies, mortgage institutions, construction companies, and pension funds. They immediately become interested in tapping into the vast financial resources that Ukrainians are forming abroad.

Back in 2021, we calculated that Ukrainians abroad earned over 140 billion dollars. By 2025, thanks to a significantly larger number of Ukrainians abroad, this income exceeded 200 billion US dollars. In fact, Ukrainians abroad are already earning more than those who remain in Ukraine. This means that another Ukrainian economy has effectively formed outside the country.

As recently noted by the Chairman of the Board of Raiffeisen Bank, Alexander Pisaryk, Ukraine has a stable banking system, but it is small. And due to Ukrainians and businesses in Ukraine, it will not grow larger, as financial resources will continue to drain from the country, given that we live in a global economy. In the current realities, the only